Malmo FF 3–2 Vasby United: Result & Stats

Malmo FF

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Vasby United

O. Lewicki 65'

Y. Yotún 53'

M. Svanberg 18'

F. Ali 45+3'

O. Eddahri 31'

7/1/2017

Allsvenskan · Round 13Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Malmo FF71%

×Draw18%

Vasby United11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malmo FFExpected goals in this matchVasby United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.71

Malmo FF

2.17

Vasby United

0.71

Malmo FF creates 206% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 23 away

2.17

creates per match

0.61

0.80

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Malmo FF

2.17

Vasby United

0.61

allows per match

Malmo FF

0.80

Vasby United

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Vasby United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw

89%

Malmo FF or Vasby United

82%

Draw or Vasby United

29%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+

46%

Vasby United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals

89%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

64%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

36%

Vasby United 1+ goals

51%

Vasby United 2+ goals

16%

Vasby United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

87%

Vasby United (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Vasby United away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.17 + Vasby United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vasby United attack 0.61 + Malmo FF defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Malmo FF scores more

71%

level

18%

Vasby United scores more

11%

Malmo FF at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Y. Yotún

Malmo FF · M

9.4

Match Events

11'

M. Svanberg← M. Rosenberg

15'

Ferid Ali

18'

M. Svanberg↳ A. Jeremejeff

19'

E. Frimpong← Mauricio Albornoz

31'

45'

45+3'

46'

53'

62'

65'

66'

A. Bazoukou← S. Matic

82'

A. Vindheim← M. Svanberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalmoVasby

Overview

69%Possession31%

28Total Shots6

9Corners3

6Fouls23

Shots

28Total Shots6

8On Target3

14Off Target2

6Blocked1

13Inside Box3

15Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

567Total Passes258

486Accurate Passes173

86%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls23

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0