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Vasby United vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

Vasby United
Vasby United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
10/21/2017AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 28Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vasby United34%
×Draw26%
IF Elfsborg41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasby United
1.29
IF Elfsborg
1.45

IF Elfsborg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 127 away

creates per match

Vasby United
1.13
IF Elfsborg
1.38

allows per match

Vasby United
1.52
IF Elfsborg
1.45

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw
59%
Vasby United or IF Elfsborg
74%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
66%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+
15%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals
72%
Vasby United 2+ goals
37%
Vasby United 3+ goals
14%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
77%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
42%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)
45%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.45 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.13 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

IF Elfsborg attack 1.38 + Vasby United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vasby United scores more
34%
level
26%
IF Elfsborg scores more
41%

IF Elfsborg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Vasby United 2–3 IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Vasby United 3-2 in Allsvenskan on October 21, 2017.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.