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IF Elfsborg vs Vasby United — Allsvenskan 2026

IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vasby United
Vasby United
5/18/2017AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 9Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

IF Elfsborg63%
×Draw21%
Vasby United16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IF Elfsborg
1.98
Vasby United
0.89

IF Elfsborg creates 122% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 23 away

creates per match

IF Elfsborg
1.80
Vasby United
0.61

allows per match

IF Elfsborg
1.16
Vasby United
2.17

finishing

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par
Vasby United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Elfsborg ↓

Vasby United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

IF Elfsborg or draw
84%
IF Elfsborg or Vasby United
79%
Draw or Vasby United
37%

Winning margin

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
38%
Vasby United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
86%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
59%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
31%
Vasby United 1+ goals
59%
Vasby United 2+ goals
22%
Vasby United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
79%
Vasby United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Elfsborg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Vasby United away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Elfsborg attack 1.80 + Vasby United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vasby United attack 0.61 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

IF Elfsborg scores more
63%
level
21%
Vasby United scores more
16%

IF Elfsborg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IF Elfsborg 2–1 Vasby United

IF Elfsborg beat Vasby United 2-1 in Allsvenskan on May 18, 2017.

The match was played at Borås Arena in Boras.