Vasby United 1–1 Gefle IF: Result & Stats

Vasby United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gefle IF

K. Erasmus 58'

P. Johansson 90+6' (pen)

5/24/2018

Superettan · Round 9Tunavallen (Eskilstuna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vasby United56%

×Draw24%

Gefle IF20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.91

Vasby United

1.69

Gefle IF

0.91

Vasby United creates 86% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 45 away

1.59

creates per match

0.87

0.95

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Vasby United

1.59

Gefle IF

0.87

allows per match

Vasby United

0.95

Gefle IF

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

80%

Vasby United or Gefle IF

76%

Draw or Gefle IF

44%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

31%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

82%

Vasby United 2+ goals

50%

Vasby United 3+ goals

24%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

60%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

23%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

73%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.59 + Gefle IF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gefle IF attack 0.87 + Vasby United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vasby United scores more

56%

level

24%

Gefle IF scores more

20%

Vasby United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

K. Erasmus

62'

I. Marković← O. Akpoveta

69'

Y. Housni← L. Bengtsson

73'

J. Hjelte← E. Törnros

74'

G. Jarl← O. Camara

81'

F. Ali← K. Erasmus

90+6'

P. JohanssonPenalty

Vasby

Gefle

1

6

27

13

17

4

7

⚽

Johansson

21

Zhurakhov

24

▼

Bengtsson

10

▼

11

1

22

19

2

3

21

94

95

⚽

▼

Erasmus

18

▼

Akpoveta

16

Nnamani

8

▼

Camara

Manager: N. Miljanovic

62'▲I. Marković←▼O. Akpoveta

74'▲G. Jarl←▼O. Camara

81'▲F. Ali←▼K. Erasmus

Vasby United substitutes

28Marković5Jarl7Ali6Termanini26Åstedt89Ivanov99Kargbo

Manager: J. Mjällby

69'▲Y. Housni←▼L. Bengtsson

73'▲J. Hjelte←▼E. Törnros

Gefle IF substitutes

23Housni15Hjelte5Björkman12Gussman14Kastrati20Sandlund22Frodig