Gefle IF 2–0 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Gefle IF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Eskilstuna

L. Englund 63' (pen), 42' (pen)

7/8/2023

Superettan · Round 13Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Gefle IF40%

×Draw25%

AFC Eskilstuna35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gefle IFExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.39

Gefle IF

1.51

AFC Eskilstuna

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

1.43

creates per match

1.01

1.76

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Gefle IF

1.43

AFC Eskilstuna

1.01

allows per match

Gefle IF

1.76

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gefle IF+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw

65%

Gefle IF or AFC Eskilstuna

75%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

60%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+

20%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals

78%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

44%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

19%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

75%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

40%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

54%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.76 · 46 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.43 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.01 + Gefle IF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gefle IF scores more

40%

level

25%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

35%

Gefle IF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Robin Sundgren

42'

L. EnglundPenalty

60'

O. Lindberg← A. Culum

63'

Nick Wolters

63'

L. EnglundPenalty

69'

M. Mitku← A. Yakubu

69'

T. Hansemon← J. Modig

73'

A. Yakoub← A. Edqvist

78'

Anton Ekeroth

82'

Iu Ranera Grau

83'

J. Hjelte← L. Englund

83'

Z. Fryers← E. Agyemang Duah

83'

I. Shamoun← M. Palomino

88'

D. Eliasson← Y. Rafael

90+5'

Constantino Capotondi

90+1'

Oskar Lindberg

Possession

Shots

Statistics

GefleAFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots17

4Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target4

4Off Target9

1Blocked4

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0