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AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF — Superettan 2018

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gefle IF
Gefle IF
8/28/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 20Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna55%
×Draw24%
Gefle IF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.67
Gefle IF
0.92

AFC Eskilstuna creates 82% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 45 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.55
Gefle IF
0.87

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.97
Gefle IF
1.78

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Gefle IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
79%
AFC Eskilstuna or Gefle IF
76%
Draw or Gefle IF
45%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
30%
Gefle IF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
81%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
50%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
23%
Gefle IF 1+ goals
60%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
23%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
73%
Gefle IF (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.55 + Gefle IF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gefle IF attack 0.87 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
55%
level
24%
Gefle IF scores more
21%

AFC Eskilstuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF

AFC Eskilstuna beat Gefle IF 2-1 in Superettan on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.