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Vasas II vs Körösladány — NB III - Northeast 2019

Vasas II
Vasas II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Körösladány
Körösladány
2/12/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 21Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vasas II45%
×Draw23%
Körösladány32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas II
1.84
Körösladány
1.52

Vasas II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vasas II
2.00
Körösladány
1.37

allows per match

Vasas II
1.68
Körösladány
1.68

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par
Körösladány+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Körösladány →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw
68%
Vasas II or Körösladány
77%
Draw or Körösladány
55%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+
25%
Körösladány wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals
84%
Vasas II 2+ goals
55%
Vasas II 3+ goals
28%
Körösladány 1+ goals
78%
Körösladány 2+ goals
45%
Körösladány 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)
59%
Körösladány (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Körösladány away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.00 + Körösladány defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Körösladány attack 1.37 + Vasas II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasas II scores more
45%
level
23%
Körösladány scores more
32%

Vasas II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas II vs Körösladány

Körösladány beat Vasas II 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.