Körösladány 3–1 Vasas II: Result & Stats

Körösladány

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vasas II

8/3/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Körösladány Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Körösladány40%

×Draw24%

Vasas II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KörösladányExpected goals in this matchVasas II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.44

Körösladány

1.55

Vasas II

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.63

creates per match

1.68

1.21

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Körösladány

1.63

Vasas II

1.68

allows per match

Körösladány

1.21

Vasas II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Körösladány+0.00on par

Vasas II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Körösladány ↓

Vasas II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Körösladány or draw

65%

Körösladány or Vasas II

76%

Draw or Vasas II

60%

Winning margin

Körösladány wins by 2+

20%

Vasas II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Körösladány 1+ goals

79%

Körösladány 2+ goals

46%

Körösladány 3+ goals

20%

Vasas II 1+ goals

76%

Vasas II 2+ goals

42%

Vasas II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Körösladány (draw refunded)

53%

Vasas II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Körösladány at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Vasas II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Körösladány attack 1.63 + Vasas II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vasas II attack 1.68 + Körösladány defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Körösladány scores more

40%

level

24%

Vasas II scores more

35%

Körösladány at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Körösladány will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff