Vasas II 2–1 Hajdúszoboszlói SE: Result & Stats

Vasas II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

8/21/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 5Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vasas II42%

×Draw23%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasas IIExpected goals in this matchHajdúszoboszlói SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.60

Vasas II

1.77

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.60

Vasas II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

2.00

creates per match

1.53

1.68

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Vasas II

2.00

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

allows per match

Vasas II

1.68

Hajdúszoboszlói SE

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw

65%

Vasas II or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

77%

Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE

58%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+

22%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals

83%

Vasas II 2+ goals

53%

Vasas II 3+ goals

26%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals

80%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals

47%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)

55%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.00 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Vasas II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vasas II scores more

42%

level

23%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more

35%

Vasas II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff