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Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Vasas II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Vasas II
Vasas II
B. Rab 76'
M. Kleisz 69', 52'
3/5/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 24Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE44%
×Draw25%
Vasas II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.54
Vasas II
1.25

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
Vasas II
1.68

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
Vasas II
1.47

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
Vasas II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Vasas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
69%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Vasas II
75%
Draw or Vasas II
56%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
22%
Vasas II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
79%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
45%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
20%
Vasas II 1+ goals
71%
Vasas II 2+ goals
36%
Vasas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
59%
Vasas II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Vasas II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Vasas II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vasas II attack 1.68 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
44%
level
25%
Vasas II scores more
31%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
M. Kleisz
69'
M. Kleisz
76'
B. Rab

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Vasas II

Vasas II beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Kleisz (52', 69'), B. Rab (76').

The match was played at Bocskai Stadion in Hajdúszoboszló.