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Vasas II vs ESMTK — NB III - Southeast 2023

Vasas II
Vasas II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
ESMTK
ESMTK
3/2/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 18Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vasas II35%
×Draw23%
ESMTK42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas II
1.61
ESMTK
1.78

ESMTK creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vasas II
2.07
ESMTK
2.29

allows per match

Vasas II
1.27
ESMTK
1.16

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par
ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

ESMTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw
58%
Vasas II or ESMTK
77%
Draw or ESMTK
65%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+
17%
ESMTK wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals
80%
Vasas II 2+ goals
48%
Vasas II 3+ goals
22%
ESMTK 1+ goals
83%
ESMTK 2+ goals
53%
ESMTK 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)
45%
ESMTK (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

ESMTK away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.07 + ESMTK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.61

ESMTK attack 2.29 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vasas II scores more
35%
level
23%
ESMTK scores more
42%

ESMTK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vasas II 2 – 4 ESMTK

ESMTK beat Vasas II 4-2 in NB III - Southeast on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.