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ESMTK vs Vasas II — NB III - Southeast 2023

ESMTK
ESMTK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vasas II
Vasas II
8/27/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

ESMTK49%
×Draw24%
Vasas II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMTK
1.75
Vasas II
1.25

ESMTK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

ESMTK
2.22
Vasas II
1.91

allows per match

ESMTK
0.60
Vasas II
1.27

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par
Vasas II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Vasas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw
73%
ESMTK or Vasas II
76%
Draw or Vasas II
51%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+
27%
Vasas II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals
83%
ESMTK 2+ goals
52%
ESMTK 3+ goals
25%
Vasas II 1+ goals
71%
Vasas II 2+ goals
36%
Vasas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)
64%
Vasas II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Vasas II away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vasas II attack 1.91 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ESMTK scores more
49%
level
24%
Vasas II scores more
27%

ESMTK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: ESMTK 2–0 Vasas II

ESMTK beat Vasas II 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 27, 2025.

The match was played at ESMTK Stadion in Budapest.