Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vasas II vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Vasas II
Vasas II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
8/30/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vasas II67%
×Draw17%
Cegledi VSE16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas II
2.63
Cegledi VSE
1.20

Vasas II creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vasas II
2.07
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

Vasas II
1.27
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw
84%
Vasas II or Cegledi VSE
83%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
33%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+
46%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals
93%
Vasas II 2+ goals
73%
Vasas II 3+ goals
48%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
70%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
34%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)
81%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.07 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.63

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vasas II scores more
67%
level
17%
Cegledi VSE scores more
16%

Vasas II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas II vs Cegledi VSE

Vasas II beat Cegledi VSE 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.