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Cegledi VSE vs Vasas II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Vasas II
Vasas II
3/17/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 20Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE12%
×Draw16%
Vasas II72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
1.04
Vasas II
2.69

Vasas II creates 159% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
Vasas II
1.91

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
Vasas II
1.27

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Vasas II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Vasas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
28%
Cegledi VSE or Vasas II
84%
Draw or Vasas II
88%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
4%
Vasas II wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
65%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
28%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
9%
Vasas II 1+ goals
93%
Vasas II 2+ goals
74%
Vasas II 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
15%
Vasas II (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

Vasas II away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Vasas II attack 1.91 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
12%
level
16%
Vasas II scores more
72%

Vasas II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cegledi VSE vs Vasas II

Vasas II beat Cegledi VSE 7-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.