Vasas Femina W 4–1 Universitatea Alexandria W

Vasas Femina W

FT

4 – 1

Universitatea Alexandria W

11/15/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 10Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vasas Femina W39%

×Draw19%

Universitatea Alexandria W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasas Femina WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Alexandria W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

2.42

Vasas Femina W

2.35

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 45 away

1.73

creates per match

2.69

2.16

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Vasas Femina W

1.73

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.69

allows per match

Vasas Femina W

2.16

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw

58%

Vasas Femina W or Universitatea Alexandria W

81%

Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W

61%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

22%

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

90%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

68%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

41%

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

91%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

69%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

49%

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.35

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more

39%

level

19%

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

42%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff