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Universitatea Alexandria W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
6 – 1
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
5/22/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 9Stadionul Comunal Plosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W64%
×Draw17%
Vasas Femina W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
3.00
Vasas Femina W
1.64

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 83% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 58 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
81%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Vasas Femina W
83%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
36%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
45%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
95%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
79%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
56%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
81%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
49%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
77%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 3.00

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
64%
level
17%
Vasas Femina W scores more
19%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Universitatea Alexandria W 6–1 Vasas Femina W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat Vasas Femina W 6-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Plosca in Plosca.