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Vasalund vs Sollentuna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vasalund
Vasalund
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sollentuna
Sollentuna
2/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vasalund45%
×Draw23%
Sollentuna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasalund
1.79
Sollentuna
1.48

Vasalund creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vasalund
1.88
Sollentuna
1.57

allows per match

Vasalund
1.38
Sollentuna
1.71

finishing

Vasalund+0.00on par
Sollentuna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasalund ↓

Sollentuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vasalund or draw
68%
Vasalund or Sollentuna
77%
Draw or Sollentuna
55%

Winning margin

Vasalund wins by 2+
24%
Sollentuna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vasalund 1+ goals
83%
Vasalund 2+ goals
53%
Vasalund 3+ goals
26%
Sollentuna 1+ goals
77%
Sollentuna 2+ goals
43%
Sollentuna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Vasalund (draw refunded)
58%
Sollentuna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasalund at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Sollentuna away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasalund attack 1.88 + Sollentuna defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sollentuna attack 1.57 + Vasalund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasalund scores more
45%
level
23%
Sollentuna scores more
32%

Vasalund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vasalund
Sollentuna
R. Hassan
Manager: R. Hassan
Johan Palm
Manager: Johan Palm

Friendlies Clubs: Vasalund 1–2 Sollentuna

Sollentuna beat Vasalund 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2026.