Sollentuna 0–1 Vasalund: Result & Stats

Sollentuna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vasalund

E. Jemal 42' (pen)

6/9/2024

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 12Sollentunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Sollentuna38%

×Draw23%

Vasalund39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SollentunaExpected goals in this matchVasalund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.67

Sollentuna

1.66

Vasalund

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 98 away

1.70

creates per match

1.94

1.39

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sollentuna

1.70

Vasalund

1.94

allows per match

Sollentuna

1.39

Vasalund

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sollentuna+0.00on par

Vasalund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sollentuna ↓

Vasalund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sollentuna or draw

61%

Sollentuna or Vasalund

77%

Draw or Vasalund

62%

Winning margin

Sollentuna wins by 2+

19%

Vasalund wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sollentuna 1+ goals

81%

Sollentuna 2+ goals

49%

Sollentuna 3+ goals

23%

Vasalund 1+ goals

81%

Vasalund 2+ goals

50%

Vasalund 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sollentuna (draw refunded)

50%

Vasalund (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sollentuna at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.39 · 112 matches

Vasalund away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sollentuna attack 1.70 + Vasalund defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Vasalund attack 1.94 + Sollentuna defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sollentuna scores more

38%

level

23%

Vasalund scores more

39%

Vasalund at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vasalund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Duranic

39'

S. Nikopoulos

42'

E. JemalPenalty

44'

M. Dejene

53'

G. Ersoy

65'

P. Simba

67'

N. Engberg← L. Celina

71'

R. Othman← P. Simba

72'

M. Mitku← E. Stenstrand

76'

A. Pantelidis← R. Sundgren

83'

A. Khalil← N. Tesfai Negash

83'

E. Gunan← O. Sjöstrand

88'

N. Maripuu

89'

F. Bovin← E. Jemal

90+4'

M. Olsson Valdes

90+5'

M. Khalil

Sollentuna

Vasalund

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Palm

67'▲N. Engberg←▼L. Celina

71'▲R. Othman←▼P. Simba

72'▲M. Mitku←▼E. Stenstrand

83'▲A. Khalil←▼N. Tesfai Negash

83'▲E. Gunan←▼O. Sjöstrand

Sollentuna substitutes

EngbergOthmanMitkuKhalilGunanSveijerSoelberg

Manager: R. Hassan

76'▲A. Pantelidis←▼R. Sundgren

89'▲F. Bovin←▼E. Jemal

Vasalund substitutes

PantelidisBovinPrengaAxelssonLukicDyrkeBirgoth