Varzim 0–1 Academica: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Varzim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Academica

E. Farias 69'

3/7/2026

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Varzim40%

×Draw26%

Academica33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.22

Varzim

1.37

Academica

1.22

Varzim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

1.52

creates per match

1.52

0.92

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Varzim

1.52

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Varzim

0.92

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

67%

Varzim or Academica

74%

Draw or Academica

60%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

19%

Academica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

75%

Varzim 2+ goals

40%

Varzim 3+ goals

16%

Academica 1+ goals

70%

Academica 2+ goals

34%

Academica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

55%

Academica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Academica attack 1.52 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Varzim scores more

40%

level

26%

Academica scores more

33%

Varzim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Montez

46'

J. Sinisterra← A. Montez

51'

Xavier←

66'

C. Triana← D. Candeias

66'

Cascavel← Cuba

69'

E. Farias

75'

Pedro Clemente← Chamito

76'

C. Alves

76'

J. Gunjo← A. Gomes

85'

H. Graca← Derick

89'

D. Benchi← F. Franca

89'

M. Baixinho← B. Souza

90+6'

D. Benchi

Varzim

Academica

98

Alves

11

⚽

3

4

15

17

6

▼

Montez

21

▼

Candeias

5

Silva

93

▼

Souza

18

▼

Cuba

51

Mbaye

19

▼

Chamito

20

▼

44

10

31

3

71

77

▼

Franca

7

▼

Gomes

8

Oliveira

Manager: Alvaro Madureira

75'▲Pedro Clemente←▼Chamito

76'▲J. Gunjo←▼A. Gomes

85'▲H. Graca←▼Derick

89'▲D. Benchi←▼F. Franca

Varzim substitutes

49Costa4Chicao2Pimenta27Boloto14Graca11Benchi35Gunjo99Clemente17Sequeira

Manager: Antonio Barbosa

46'▲J. Sinisterra←▼A. Montez

51'▲Xavier←▼—

66'▲C. Triana←▼D. Candeias

66'▲Cascavel←▼Cuba

89'▲M. Baixinho←▼B. Souza

Academica substitutes

1Macedo2Baixinho7Andre8Jesus20Sinisterra14Triana49Pedro19Xavier28Cascavel