Varzim 0–2 Academica: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Varzim

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Academica

Aloísio Neto 68', 48'

3/30/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 7Estádio Varzim Sport Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Varzim40%

×Draw26%

Academica33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarzimExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.22

Varzim

1.37

Academica

1.22

Varzim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

1.52

creates per match

1.52

0.92

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Varzim

1.52

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Varzim

0.92

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Varzim or draw

67%

Varzim or Academica

74%

Draw or Academica

60%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+

19%

Academica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals

75%

Varzim 2+ goals

40%

Varzim 3+ goals

16%

Academica 1+ goals

70%

Academica 2+ goals

34%

Academica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)

55%

Academica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 1.52 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Academica attack 1.52 + Varzim defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Varzim scores more

40%

level

26%

Academica scores more

33%

Varzim at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Varzim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

V. Braga

35'

Aloisio Neto

45+2'

L. Henrique

46'

Fausto Lourenço← David Teles

46'

Hugo Seco← Tiago Veiga

48'

Xandao

48'

Aloísio Neto

53'

Joaozinho

58'

Vasco Gomes← Lucas

60'

Guga← Xandão

60'

Nuno Pereira← João Vieira

62'

Guga

68'

Aloísio Neto

78'

Areias← M. Sangaré

78'

J. Sinisterra← Léo Teixeira

78'

Nicolas Souza← Vasco Rocha

80'

Vitor Gabriel← João Silva

87'

D. Costa

90+2'

João Victor← Hugo Seco

Varzim

Academica

⚽2

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Manager: Vítor Paneira

60'▲Guga←▼Xandão

60'▲Nuno Pereira←▼João Vieira

78'▲Areias←▼M. Sangaré

78'▲J. Sinisterra←▼Léo Teixeira

78'▲Nicolas Souza←▼Vasco Rocha

Varzim substitutes

GugaPereiraAreiasSinisterraSouza

Manager: Tiago Ribeiro

46'▲Fausto Lourenço←▼David Teles

46'▲Hugo Seco←▼Tiago Veiga

58'▲Vasco Gomes←▼Lucas

80'▲Vitor Gabriel←▼João Silva

90+2'▲João Victor←▼Hugo Seco

Academica substitutes

LourençoSecoGomesGabrielVictor