Varnsdorf 2–2 Sparta Praha II: Result & Stats | FNL

Varnsdorf

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Sparta Praha II

8/13/2023

FNL · Round 5Stadion v Kotlině

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Varnsdorf48%

×Draw23%

Sparta Praha II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarnsdorfExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.30

Varnsdorf

1.77

Sparta Praha II

1.30

Varnsdorf creates 36% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 75 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

1.45

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Varnsdorf

1.72

Sparta Praha II

1.15

allows per match

Varnsdorf

1.45

Sparta Praha II

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Sparta Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw

72%

Varnsdorf or Sparta Praha II

77%

Draw or Sparta Praha II

52%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+

26%

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals

83%

Varnsdorf 2+ goals

53%

Varnsdorf 3+ goals

26%

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

73%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

37%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)

63%

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.72 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Varnsdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Varnsdorf scores more

48%

level

23%

Sparta Praha II scores more

28%

Varnsdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff