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Sparta Praha II vs Varnsdorf — FNL 2019

Sparta Praha II
Sparta Praha II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
5/8/2023FNLFNL · Round 26eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II47%
×Draw25%
Varnsdorf28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha II
1.58
Varnsdorf
1.16

Sparta Praha II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha II
1.55
Varnsdorf
1.10

allows per match

Sparta Praha II
1.21
Varnsdorf
1.61

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par
Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Varnsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw
72%
Sparta Praha II or Varnsdorf
75%
Draw or Varnsdorf
53%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+
24%
Varnsdorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Sparta Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Sparta Praha II 3+ goals
21%
Varnsdorf 1+ goals
69%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
32%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)
63%
Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Varnsdorf away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Varnsdorf defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.58

Varnsdorf attack 1.10 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more
47%
level
25%
Varnsdorf scores more
28%

Sparta Praha II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Sparta Praha II 2–0 Varnsdorf

Sparta Praha II beat Varnsdorf 2-0 in FNL on May 8, 2023.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.