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Varnsdorf vs Příbram — FNL 2019

Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Příbram
Příbram
3/13/2022FNLFNL · Round 18Stadion v Kotlině

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Varnsdorf43%
×Draw24%
Příbram32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varnsdorf
1.59
Příbram
1.35

Varnsdorf creates 18% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 60 away

creates per match

Varnsdorf
1.72
Příbram
1.25

allows per match

Varnsdorf
1.45
Příbram
1.47

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par
Příbram+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Příbram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw
68%
Varnsdorf or Příbram
76%
Draw or Příbram
57%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+
22%
Příbram wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals
80%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
47%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
21%
Příbram 1+ goals
74%
Příbram 2+ goals
39%
Příbram 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
57%
Příbram (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Příbram away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.72 + Příbram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Příbram attack 1.25 + Varnsdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Varnsdorf scores more
43%
level
24%
Příbram scores more
32%

Varnsdorf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Varnsdorf 3–0 Příbram

Varnsdorf beat Příbram 3-0 in FNL on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion v Kotlině in Varnsdorf.