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Příbram vs Varnsdorf — FNL 2019

Příbram
Příbram
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
11/3/2023FNLFNL · Round 15Stadion Na Litavce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Příbram44%
×Draw27%
Varnsdorf30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram
1.41
Varnsdorf
1.11

Příbram creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Příbram
1.20
Varnsdorf
1.10

allows per match

Příbram
1.13
Varnsdorf
1.61

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par
Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Varnsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Příbram or draw
70%
Příbram or Varnsdorf
73%
Draw or Varnsdorf
56%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+
21%
Varnsdorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals
76%
Příbram 2+ goals
41%
Příbram 3+ goals
17%
Varnsdorf 1+ goals
67%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
30%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)
60%
Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 60 matches

Varnsdorf away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 1.20 + Varnsdorf defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Varnsdorf attack 1.10 + Příbram defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Příbram scores more
44%
level
27%
Varnsdorf scores more
30%

Příbram at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Příbram will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Příbram 2–2 Varnsdorf

Příbram and Varnsdorf drew 2-2 in FNL on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Na Litavce in Příbram.