Varnsdorf 0–1 Dukla Praha: Result & Stats | FNL

Varnsdorf

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dukla Praha

3/10/2024

FNL · Round 18Stadion v Kotlině

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Varnsdorf41%

×Draw24%

Dukla Praha35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VarnsdorfExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.43

Varnsdorf

1.56

Dukla Praha

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 73 away

1.72

creates per match

1.41

1.45

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Varnsdorf

1.72

Dukla Praha

1.41

allows per match

Varnsdorf

1.45

Dukla Praha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varnsdorf ↓

Dukla Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Varnsdorf or draw

65%

Varnsdorf or Dukla Praha

76%

Draw or Dukla Praha

59%

Winning margin

Varnsdorf wins by 2+

20%

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Varnsdorf 1+ goals

79%

Varnsdorf 2+ goals

46%

Varnsdorf 3+ goals

21%

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

76%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

42%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Varnsdorf (draw refunded)

54%

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varnsdorf at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.45 · 88 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varnsdorf attack 1.72 + Dukla Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dukla Praha attack 1.41 + Varnsdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Varnsdorf scores more

41%

level

24%

Dukla Praha scores more

35%

Varnsdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Varnsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff