Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dukla Praha vs Varnsdorf — FNL 2019

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf
9/8/2022FNLFNL · Round 4Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha53%
×Draw23%
Varnsdorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
1.77
Varnsdorf
1.11

Dukla Praha creates 59% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
1.93
Varnsdorf
1.10

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.12
Varnsdorf
1.61

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par
Varnsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Varnsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
76%
Dukla Praha or Varnsdorf
77%
Draw or Varnsdorf
47%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
29%
Varnsdorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
83%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
53%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
26%
Varnsdorf 1+ goals
67%
Varnsdorf 2+ goals
30%
Varnsdorf 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
69%
Varnsdorf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Varnsdorf away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Varnsdorf defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Varnsdorf attack 1.10 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
53%
level
23%
Varnsdorf scores more
24%

Dukla Praha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha vs Varnsdorf

Dukla Praha and Varnsdorf drew 1-1 in FNL on September 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.