Värmbols 3–2 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Värmbols

FT

3 – 2

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

9/8/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 10Värmbols IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Värmbols49%

×Draw21%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VärmbolsExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.66

Värmbols

2.13

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.66

Värmbols creates 28% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 34 away

1.51

creates per match

1.26

2.06

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Värmbols

1.51

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Värmbols

2.06

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Värmbols+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Värmbols ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Värmbols or draw

70%

Värmbols or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

79%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

51%

Winning margin

Värmbols wins by 2+

28%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Värmbols 1+ goals

88%

Värmbols 2+ goals

63%

Värmbols 3+ goals

35%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

81%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

49%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Värmbols (draw refunded)

61%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Värmbols at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.06 · 47 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Värmbols attack 1.51 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Värmbols defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Värmbols scores more

49%

level

21%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

30%

Värmbols at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Värmbols will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff