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Trosa-Vagnhärad SK vs Värmbols — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
FT
1 – 1
Värmbols
Värmbols
10/10/2020Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 12Häradsvallen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK50%
×Draw21%
Värmbols29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.20
Värmbols
1.65

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

creates per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.85
Värmbols
1.43

allows per match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.88
Värmbols
2.54

finishing

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par
Värmbols+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK ↓

Värmbols →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or draw
71%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK or Värmbols
79%
Draw or Värmbols
50%

Winning margin

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
30%
Värmbols wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
89%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
64%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
37%
Värmbols 1+ goals
81%
Värmbols 2+ goals
49%
Värmbols 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
63%
Värmbols (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

Värmbols away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.85 + Värmbols defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.20

Värmbols attack 1.43 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
50%
level
21%
Värmbols scores more
29%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1–1 Värmbols

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK and Värmbols drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Häradsvallen A in Vagnhärad.