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Varginha EC vs Uniao Trabalhadores — Mineiro - 2 2026

Varginha EC
Varginha EC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Uniao Trabalhadores
Uniao Trabalhadores
Unknown 35'
Unknown 53'
5/19/2024Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Varginha EC30%
×Draw30%
Uniao Trabalhadores39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varginha EC
0.94
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.11

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Varginha EC
0.96
Uniao Trabalhadores
1.22

allows per match

Varginha EC
1.00
Uniao Trabalhadores
0.91

finishing

Varginha EC+0.00on par
Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varginha EC ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Varginha EC or draw
61%
Varginha EC or Uniao Trabalhadores
70%
Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores
70%

Winning margin

Varginha EC wins by 2+
11%
Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Varginha EC 1+ goals
61%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
24%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
7%
Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals
67%
Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals
30%
Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Varginha EC (draw refunded)
44%
Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varginha EC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varginha EC attack 0.96 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Varginha EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Varginha EC scores more
30%
level
30%
Uniao Trabalhadores scores more
39%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
53'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Varginha EC 1–1 Uniao Trabalhadores

Varginha EC and Uniao Trabalhadores drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (35', 53').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.