Uniao Trabalhadores 1–1 Varginha EC: Result & Stats

Uniao Trabalhadores

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Varginha EC

Bernardo 11'

Igor Lemos 71'

6/5/2024

Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Zama Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Uniao Trabalhadores47%

×Draw28%

Varginha EC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uniao TrabalhadoresExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.36

Varginha EC

0.92

Uniao Trabalhadores creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.27

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.92

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uniao Trabalhadores ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Uniao Trabalhadores or draw

75%

Uniao Trabalhadores or Varginha EC

72%

Draw or Varginha EC

53%

Winning margin

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

22%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

74%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

39%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

16%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

60%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

23%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

65%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uniao Trabalhadores at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.27 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

47%

level

28%

Varginha EC scores more

25%

Uniao Trabalhadores at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Uniao Trabalhadores will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Bernardo

71'

Igor Lemos

90+3'

Joao Cardoso

90+3'

Andrezinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff