Varginha EC 2–1 Tupynambás: Result & Stats

Varginha EC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tupynambás

5/10/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Varginha EC35%

×Draw31%

Tupynambás34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Varginha ECExpected goals in this matchTupynambás

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.98

Varginha EC

1.00

Tupynambás

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

0.96

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Varginha EC

0.96

Tupynambás

0.96

allows per match

Varginha EC

1.00

Tupynambás

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varginha EC ↓

Tupynambás →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Varginha EC or draw

66%

Varginha EC or Tupynambás

69%

Draw or Tupynambás

65%

Winning margin

Varginha EC wins by 2+

13%

Tupynambás wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Varginha EC 1+ goals

63%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

26%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

8%

Tupynambás 1+ goals

62%

Tupynambás 2+ goals

26%

Tupynambás 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

51%

Tupynambás (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varginha EC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varginha EC attack 0.96 + Tupynambás defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Tupynambás attack 0.96 + Varginha EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Varginha EC scores more

35%

level

31%

Tupynambás scores more

34%

Varginha EC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Varginha EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff