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Tupynambás vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
7/20/2022Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 8Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tupynambás41%
×Draw31%
Varginha EC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
1.09
Varginha EC
0.86

Tupynambás creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
72%
Tupynambás or Varginha EC
69%
Draw or Varginha EC
59%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
17%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
66%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
30%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
10%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
58%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
21%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
59%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.09

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tupynambás scores more
41%
level
31%
Varginha EC scores more
28%

Tupynambás at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupynambás vs Varginha EC

Tupynambás and Varginha EC drew 0-0 in Mineiro - 2 on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.