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Varginha EC vs CAP — Mineiro - 2 2026

Varginha EC
Varginha EC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CAP
CAP
Julio Cesar 31'
5/15/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Varginha EC27%
×Draw34%
CAP40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varginha EC
0.73
CAP
0.96

CAP creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 12 away

creates per match

Varginha EC
0.96
CAP
0.92

allows per match

Varginha EC
1.00
CAP
0.50

finishing

Varginha EC+0.00on par
CAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 76Over: 2476%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varginha EC ↓

CAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–118%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Varginha EC or draw
60%
Varginha EC or CAP
66%
Draw or CAP
73%

Winning margin

Varginha EC wins by 2+
8%
CAP wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Varginha EC 1+ goals
52%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
17%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
4%
CAP 1+ goals
62%
CAP 2+ goals
25%
CAP 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Varginha EC (draw refunded)
40%
CAP (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varginha EC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

CAP away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varginha EC attack 0.96 + CAP defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

CAP attack 0.92 + Varginha EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Varginha EC scores more
27%
level
34%
CAP scores more
40%

CAP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Julio Cesar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varginha EC vs CAP

CAP beat Varginha EC 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 15, 2025.

Goals: Julio Cesar (31').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito Dilzon Luiz de Melo in Varginha, Minas Gerais.