CAP 0–2 Varginha EC: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

CAP

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Varginha EC

Daniel 45+3'

Paulo Marcelo 16'

5/28/2025

Mineiro - 2 · Round 6Estádio Pedro Alves do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CAP33%

×Draw29%

Varginha EC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CAPExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

CAP

1.04

Varginha EC

1.15

Varginha EC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

0.62

creates per match

0.92

1.38

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

CAP

0.62

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

CAP

1.38

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CAP+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CAP ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CAP or draw

62%

CAP or Varginha EC

71%

Draw or Varginha EC

67%

Winning margin

CAP wins by 2+

13%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CAP 1+ goals

65%

CAP 2+ goals

28%

CAP 3+ goals

9%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

68%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

32%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CAP (draw refunded)

46%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CAP at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CAP attack 0.62 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + CAP defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CAP scores more

33%

level

29%

Varginha EC scores more

38%

Varginha EC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Varginha EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Paulo Marcelo

45+3'

Daniel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff