Vargas Torres 2–1 Guayaquil: Result & Stats

Vargas Torres

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guayaquil

7/6/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres50%

×Draw28%

Guayaquil22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vargas TorresExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.82

Vargas Torres

1.37

Guayaquil

0.82

Vargas Torres creates 67% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 54 away

1.15

creates per match

0.91

0.73

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vargas Torres

1.15

Guayaquil

0.91

allows per match

Vargas Torres

0.73

Guayaquil

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Guayaquil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Guayaquil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw

78%

Vargas Torres or Guayaquil

72%

Draw or Guayaquil

50%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

24%

Guayaquil wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

75%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

40%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

16%

Guayaquil 1+ goals

56%

Guayaquil 2+ goals

20%

Guayaquil 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

69%

Guayaquil (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Guayaquil away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Guayaquil defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Guayaquil attack 0.91 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vargas Torres scores more

50%

level

28%

Guayaquil scores more

22%

Vargas Torres at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff