Guayaquil 0–0 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

Guayaquil

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vargas Torres

5/3/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 8Estadio Rafael Vera Yépez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Guayaquil43%

×Draw30%

Vargas Torres26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuayaquilExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.83

Guayaquil

1.16

Vargas Torres

0.83

Guayaquil creates 40% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 52 away

1.02

creates per match

0.60

1.07

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Guayaquil

1.02

Vargas Torres

0.60

allows per match

Guayaquil

1.07

Vargas Torres

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guayaquil or draw

74%

Guayaquil or Vargas Torres

70%

Draw or Vargas Torres

57%

Winning margin

Guayaquil wins by 2+

19%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Guayaquil 1+ goals

69%

Guayaquil 2+ goals

32%

Guayaquil 3+ goals

11%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

56%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

20%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil (draw refunded)

62%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil attack 1.02 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + Guayaquil defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guayaquil scores more

43%

level

30%

Vargas Torres scores more

26%

Guayaquil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guayaquil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff