Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vargas Torres vs Cumbayá — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cumbayá
Cumbayá
5/14/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 9Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vargas Torres49%
×Draw28%
Cumbayá23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.33
Cumbayá
0.82

Vargas Torres creates 62% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.36
Cumbayá
0.96

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.68
Cumbayá
1.31

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Cumbayá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
77%
Vargas Torres or Cumbayá
72%
Draw or Cumbayá
51%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
23%
Cumbayá wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
74%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
38%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
15%
Cumbayá 1+ goals
56%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
20%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
68%
Cumbayá (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.36 + Cumbayá defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cumbayá attack 0.96 + Vargas Torres defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
49%
level
28%
Cumbayá scores more
23%

Vargas Torres at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Vargas Torres 4–0 Cumbayá

Vargas Torres beat Cumbayá 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.