Cumbayá 2–1 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

Cumbayá

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vargas Torres

M. Balda 16'

J. Morocho 2'

I. Bandera 48'

7/22/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Albornoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cumbayá45%

×Draw30%

Vargas Torres24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CumbayáExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.79

Cumbayá

1.19

Vargas Torres

0.79

Cumbayá creates 51% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.26

creates per match

0.59

1.00

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Cumbayá

1.26

Vargas Torres

0.59

allows per match

Cumbayá

1.00

Vargas Torres

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cumbayá+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cumbayá ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cumbayá or draw

76%

Cumbayá or Vargas Torres

70%

Draw or Vargas Torres

55%

Winning margin

Cumbayá wins by 2+

20%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cumbayá 1+ goals

70%

Cumbayá 2+ goals

33%

Cumbayá 3+ goals

12%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

55%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

19%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cumbayá (draw refunded)

65%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cumbayá at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cumbayá attack 1.26 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + Cumbayá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cumbayá scores more

45%

level

30%

Vargas Torres scores more

24%

Cumbayá at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cumbayá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Morocho

16'

M. Balda

48'

I. Bandera

Cumbayá

Vargas

Manager: D. Neculman

Manager: J. Estacio