Vargas Torres 0–0 Chacaritas: Result & Stats

Vargas Torres

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chacaritas

4/4/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 3Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vargas Torres68%

×Draw21%

Chacaritas12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vargas TorresExpected goals in this matchChacaritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.65

Vargas Torres

1.93

Chacaritas

0.65

Vargas Torres creates 197% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.36

creates per match

0.61

0.68

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Vargas Torres

1.36

Chacaritas

0.61

allows per match

Vargas Torres

0.68

Chacaritas

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Chacaritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw

88%

Vargas Torres or Chacaritas

79%

Draw or Chacaritas

32%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

42%

Chacaritas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

85%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

57%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

30%

Chacaritas 1+ goals

48%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

14%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

85%

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.36 + Chacaritas defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Chacaritas attack 0.61 + Vargas Torres defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vargas Torres scores more

68%

level

21%

Chacaritas scores more

12%

Vargas Torres at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Folleco← A. Viteri

45'

C. Díaz← Allyson

45'

K. Arce← J. Porozo

47'

J. Ceron

51'

E. Nazareno← J. Molina

51'

J. Rodríguez← D. Gaspar

65'

A. Castro← L. Lastra

75'

A. Villamil← R. Aquino

Vargas

Chacaritas

12

Villarrea

14

Almeida

20

▼

77

3

31

5

10

▼

Molina

11

▼

Aquino

39

Acurio

36

▼

Viteri

1

Castro

16

Ayoví

91

▼

4

14

5

7

▼

Allyson

11

Cárdenas

8

▼

Porozo

9

Yépez

80

Segura

Manager: J. Estacio

45'▲C. Díaz←▼Allyson

45'▲K. Arce←▼J. Porozo

65'▲A. Castro←▼L. Lastra

Vargas Torres substitutes

17Díaz30Arce40Castro10Arteaga12Padilla21González22Montezuma41Macías53Bautista88Guerrero

Manager: C. Calderón

37'▲J. Folleco←▼A. Viteri

51'▲E. Nazareno←▼J. Molina

51'▲J. Rodríguez←▼D. Gaspar

75'▲A. Villamil←▼R. Aquino

Chacaritas substitutes

18Folleco37Nazareno28Rodríguez70Villamil6Uriarte1Fernandez23Carranza13Gallardo34Adum30Usma