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Vargas Torres vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
J. Arana 82'
S. Jaramillo 34'
M. Ortiz 34'
C. Orejuela 20'
A. García 72'
R. Cabeza 53' (pen)
10/17/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 34Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres52%
×Draw28%
Chacaritas20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.35
Chacaritas
0.71

Vargas Torres creates 90% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 97 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
Chacaritas
0.68

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
Chacaritas
1.56

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
80%
Vargas Torres or Chacaritas
72%
Draw or Chacaritas
48%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
25%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
74%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
39%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
15%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
51%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
16%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
73%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.56 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + Chacaritas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chacaritas attack 0.68 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
52%
level
28%
Chacaritas scores more
20%

Vargas Torres at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
C. Orejuela
34'
S. Jaramillo
34'
M. Ortiz
53'
R. CabezaPenalty
72'
A. García
82'
J. Arana

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Vargas Torres 4–2 Chacaritas

Vargas Torres beat Chacaritas 4-2 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 17, 2024.

Goals: C. Orejuela (20'), S. Jaramillo (34'), M. Ortiz (34'), R. Cabeza (53' pen), A. García (72'), J. Arana (82').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.