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Vargas Torres vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
America de Quito
America de Quito
J. Villa 32'
10/18/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 35Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vargas Torres43%
×Draw29%
America de Quito27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.21
America de Quito
0.89

Vargas Torres creates 36% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.15
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.73
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
73%
Vargas Torres or America de Quito
71%
Draw or America de Quito
57%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
19%
America de Quito wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
70%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
34%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
12%
America de Quito 1+ goals
59%
America de Quito 2+ goals
22%
America de Quito 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
62%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.15 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Vargas Torres defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
43%
level
29%
America de Quito scores more
27%

Vargas Torres at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
J. Villa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs America de Quito

America de Quito beat Vargas Torres 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 18, 2023.

Goals: J. Villa (32').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.