America de Quito 1–0 Vargas Torres: Result & Stats

America de Quito

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vargas Torres

J. Folleco 10' (pen)

8/30/2023

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 27Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

America de Quito53%

×Draw28%

Vargas Torres19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de QuitoExpected goals in this matchVargas Torres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.72

America de Quito

1.39

Vargas Torres

0.72

America de Quito creates 93% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

1.48

creates per match

0.60

0.84

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

America de Quito

1.48

Vargas Torres

0.60

allows per match

America de Quito

0.84

Vargas Torres

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par

Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Vargas Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw

81%

America de Quito or Vargas Torres

72%

Draw or Vargas Torres

47%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+

26%

Vargas Torres wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals

75%

America de Quito 2+ goals

40%

America de Quito 3+ goals

16%

Vargas Torres 1+ goals

51%

Vargas Torres 2+ goals

16%

Vargas Torres 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)

73%

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

America de Quito scores more

53%

level

28%

Vargas Torres scores more

19%

America de Quito at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

J. FollecoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff