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Vargas Torres vs 22 de Julio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
22 de Julio
22 de Julio
Allyson 90' (pen)
J. Palacios 90'
J. Narvaez 45'
S. Cardenas 44'
9/4/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 2Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vargas Torres67%
×Draw21%
22 de Julio12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vargas Torres
1.85
22 de Julio
0.63

Vargas Torres creates 194% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vargas Torres
1.36
22 de Julio
0.57

allows per match

Vargas Torres
0.68
22 de Julio
2.35

finishing

Vargas Torres+0.00on par
22 de Julio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vargas Torres ↓

22 de Julio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vargas Torres or draw
88%
Vargas Torres or 22 de Julio
79%
Draw or 22 de Julio
33%

Winning margin

Vargas Torres wins by 2+
40%
22 de Julio wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vargas Torres 1+ goals
84%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
55%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
28%
22 de Julio 1+ goals
47%
22 de Julio 2+ goals
13%
22 de Julio 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
85%
22 de Julio (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vargas Torres at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

22 de Julio away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vargas Torres attack 1.36 + 22 de Julio defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

22 de Julio attack 0.57 + Vargas Torres defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vargas Torres scores more
67%
level
21%
22 de Julio scores more
12%

Vargas Torres at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vargas Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
S. Cardenas
45'
J. Narvaez
90'
AllysonPenalty
90'
J. Palacios
Vargas
22
J. Estacio
Manager: J. Estacio
E. Valencia
Manager: E. Valencia

Match Recap: Vargas Torres vs 22 de Julio

Vargas Torres beat 22 de Julio 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 4, 2025.

Goals: S. Cardenas (44'), J. Narvaez (45'), Allyson (90' pen), J. Palacios (90').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.