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22 de Julio vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

22 de Julio
22 de Julio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
10/12/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

22 de Julio44%
×Draw34%
Vargas Torres21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

22 de Julio
1.00
Vargas Torres
0.59

22 de Julio creates 69% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

22 de Julio
0.88
Vargas Torres
0.59

allows per match

22 de Julio
0.60
Vargas Torres
1.11

finishing

22 de Julio+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

22 de Julio ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

22 de Julio or draw
79%
22 de Julio or Vargas Torres
66%
Draw or Vargas Torres
56%

Winning margin

22 de Julio wins by 2+
17%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

22 de Julio 1+ goals
63%
22 de Julio 2+ goals
26%
22 de Julio 3+ goals
8%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
45%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
12%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

22 de Julio (draw refunded)
68%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

22 de Julio at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

22 de Julio attack 0.88 + Vargas Torres defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vargas Torres attack 0.59 + 22 de Julio defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

22 de Julio scores more
44%
level
34%
Vargas Torres scores more
21%

22 de Julio at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "22 de Julio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

22
Vargas
E. Valencia
Manager: E. Valencia
J. Estacio
Manager: J. Estacio

Match Recap: 22 de Julio vs Vargas Torres

22 de Julio and Vargas Torres drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 12, 2025.