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Varea vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 24Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Varea78%
×Draw14%
Rapid de Murillo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
2.81
Rapid de Murillo
0.83

Varea creates 239% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Varea or draw
91%
Varea or Rapid de Murillo
86%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
22%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
57%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
94%
Varea 2+ goals
76%
Varea 3+ goals
52%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
56%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
20%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
90%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.81

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Varea scores more
78%
level
14%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
9%

Varea at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varea vs Rapid de Murillo

Varea beat Rapid de Murillo 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.