Rapid de Murillo 0–5 Varea: Result & Stats

Rapid de Murillo

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Varea

11/6/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo16%

×Draw20%

Varea64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid de MurilloExpected goals in this matchVarea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

2.10

Rapid de Murillo

0.92

Varea

2.10

Varea creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 108 away

0.87

creates per match

1.81

2.40

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo

0.87

Varea

1.81

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo

2.40

Varea

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Varea →

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw

36%

Rapid de Murillo or Varea

80%

Draw or Varea

84%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+

Varea wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals

60%

Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals

23%

Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals

Varea 1+ goals

88%

Varea 2+ goals

62%

Varea 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)

19%

Varea (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Varea attack 1.81 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more

16%

level

20%

Varea scores more

64%

Varea at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff