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Varea vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Varea51%
×Draw23%
Racing Rioja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.79
Racing Rioja
1.20

Varea creates 49% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Varea or draw
74%
Varea or Racing Rioja
77%
Draw or Racing Rioja
49%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
28%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
83%
Varea 2+ goals
53%
Varea 3+ goals
26%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
70%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
34%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
67%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Varea scores more
51%
level
23%
Racing Rioja scores more
26%

Varea at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Varea vs Racing Rioja

Varea and Racing Rioja drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.