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Racing Rioja vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Varea
Varea
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja36%
×Draw25%
Varea39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.39
Varea
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 108 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
Varea
0.97

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
61%
Racing Rioja or Varea
75%
Draw or Varea
64%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
17%
Varea wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
75%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
40%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
16%
Varea 1+ goals
76%
Varea 2+ goals
42%
Varea 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
48%
Varea (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.39

Varea attack 1.81 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
36%
level
25%
Varea scores more
39%

Varea at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Varea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Rioja vs Varea

Racing Rioja and Varea drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.