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Varea vs Náxara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Varea
Varea
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Náxara
Náxara
4/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio Municipal de Varea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Varea36%
×Draw23%
Náxara41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varea
1.61
Náxara
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

creates per match

Varea
2.15
Náxara
2.49

allows per match

Varea
0.93
Náxara
1.07

finishing

Varea+0.00on par
Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varea ↓

Náxara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Varea or draw
59%
Varea or Náxara
77%
Draw or Náxara
64%

Winning margin

Varea wins by 2+
18%
Náxara wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Varea 1+ goals
80%
Varea 2+ goals
48%
Varea 3+ goals
22%
Náxara 1+ goals
82%
Náxara 2+ goals
51%
Náxara 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Varea (draw refunded)
47%
Náxara (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varea at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varea attack 2.15 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.61

Náxara attack 2.49 + Varea defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Varea scores more
36%
level
23%
Náxara scores more
41%

Náxara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Varea 2–3 Náxara

Náxara beat Varea 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Varea in Varea.