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Náxara vs Varea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varea
Varea
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara50%
×Draw23%
Varea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
1.77
Varea
1.25

Náxara creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
Varea
1.81

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
Varea
0.97

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
Varea+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Varea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
73%
Náxara or Varea
77%
Draw or Varea
50%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
27%
Varea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
83%
Náxara 2+ goals
53%
Náxara 3+ goals
26%
Varea 1+ goals
71%
Varea 2+ goals
36%
Varea 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
65%
Varea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Varea away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.97 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Varea defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Varea attack 1.81 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Náxara scores more
50%
level
23%
Varea scores more
27%

Náxara at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náxara vs Varea

Náxara beat Varea 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.